The Triangle of Conflict: Oil, Power and Marginalization

The TISHK Center for Kurdistan Studies is pleased to announce an upcoming seminar entitled “The Triangle of Conflict: Oil, Power and Marginalization.”

The seminar is based on a collaborative research project conducted by Dr. Mohammad M. Aghdam (University of Geneva), Prof. Hamid Ali (Doha Institute for Graduate Studies), and Prof. Shahjahan Bhuyan (The American University in Cairo). The findings of this research were published in 2025 in the peer-reviewed academic journal Defence and Peace Economics.
The study offers an empirical examination of the dominant “Greed versus Grievance” framework in conflict studies and critically assesses how natural resource wealth—particularly oil—interacts with political exclusion and economic inequality in the escalation of violent conflict. Using georeferenced data from the PRIO-GRID dataset and applying a Negative Binomial Regression model, the research demonstrates that oil extraction alone does not constitute a sufficient cause of conflict. Rather, the risk of violence increases significantly when resource extraction coincides with political marginalization and structural economic injustice.
Through a comparative analysis of the Niger Delta and South Sudan, the study provides new insights into the conditions under which natural resources become sources of instability. It highlights the crucial role of inclusive governance and political representation in mitigating the risk of what is often described as the “resource curse,” challenging simplified explanations that reduce conflict to material greed alone.
Dr. Mohammad M. Aghdam is a researcher specializing in artificial intelligence systems and an expert in the intersection of data science and conflict research. He holds a PhD in Political Science from the University of Geneva (2020). Prior to his current work, he was involved in two major research projects at ETH Zurich: the Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) project and the Civilian Victimization project, both of which focus on large-scale conflict datasets and empirical analysis of political violence.

In addition to the comparative cases presented in the study, the seminar will explicitly engage with the situation in Kurdistan and the current political and socio-economic conditions in Iran. The theoretical framework and empirical findings will be critically discussed in relation to East Kurdistan region, with particular attention to issues of political marginalization, uneven development, resource governance, and state violence. This discussion aims to assess the explanatory power and limitations of the Greed versus Grievance approach when applied to Kurdistan and to contribute to a more context-sensitive understanding of conflict dynamics in Iran.
Dr. Aghdam is currently collaborating with scholars at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies and the American University in Cairo on a research project entitled The Algorithmic Diplomat, which explores the use of generative artificial intelligence in international decision-making processes.

The seminar will be moderated by Siawasch Mohammadi, M.A. Student in Economy and Society in Asia at the University of Bonn.

Scheduled for Sunday, February 28, 2026, at 6:00 PM (Berlin time), the seminar will take place online. The seminar will be conducted in Kurdish.The session will include a 10-minute introduction, a 30-minute presentation, a 25-minute Q&A session, and a 10-minute panel discussion and concluding remarks.

 Participants can join via Zoom using the provided link.

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